Dick van Dijk, Siem Jan Koopman, Michel van der Wel, and Jonathan Wright, "Forecasting Interest Rates with Shifting Endpoints", Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 29, No. 5, 2014, pp. 693-712. The data consist of three parts: A) Yield data [file: UnsmFB_70-09.txt] B) Blue Chip data C) Real-time data [files: RLZcpi.txt and RLZip.txt] The three data files are ASCII files in DOS format. They are zipped in the file dkww-data.zip. Unix/Linux users should use "unzip -a". A) Yield data [file: UnsmFB_70-09.txt] ------------- This data set is for monthly time series of zero yields from the CRSP unsmoothed Fama and Bliss (1987) forward rates (file: UnsmFB_70-09.txt). We refer to Diebold and Li (2006) for a detailed discussion of the method that is used for the creation of such a data set. Our balanced panel data set consists of 17 maturities over the period from January 1970 up to December 2009. We have $N=17$ yield series and $n=480$ time series observations for each yield. The maturities we analyse are 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 30, 36, 48, 60, 72, 84, 96, 108 and 120 months. These are displayed in the first row. The dates are in the first column : YYYYMMDD. Source: The data are constructed from the CRSP Monthly Treasury Cross-Sectional File. The copyright for the raw data is with CRSP, the Center for Research in Security Prices. Booth School of Business, The University of Chicago. Used with permission. All rights reserved. www.crsp.chicagobooth.edu B) Blue Chip data ----------------- The Blue Chip data for long-range forecasts of the 30 year yield, inflation and GDP growth are available for purchase. They can be bought at: - Yield data: http://www.aspenpublishers.com/product.asp?catalog_name=Aspen&product_id=9111142528 - Inflation and growth data: http://www.aspenpublishers.com/product.asp?catalog_name=Aspen&product_id=9111142526 Because of the proprietary nature of these data, they are not made available. C) Real-time data [files: RLZcpi.txt and RLZip.txt] ----------------- The data sets are for real-time data for inflation (file: RLZcpi.txt) and growth (file: RLZip.txt). The inflation data are constructed from the Consumer Price Index. The growth data are constructed from the Industrial Production Index. For both variables, we take 100 times the log first differences. In each vintage, we standardize the series to have mean zero and variance 1. Our real-time data set consists of 217 vintages from January 1992 up to January 2010. For each vintage, we consider data from January 1984 up to December 2009. Because of taking first differences, January 1984 is always missing. For each vintage, data are only available up to the month before that vintage. That is, for the January 1992 vintage, data are available for January 1984 through December 1991, for the February 1992 vintage, data for January 1984 through January 1992 are available, and so on. The 217 vintage dates are displayed in the first row. The 312 dates in the sample are in the first column. Dates are displayed as: YYYYMM. Source: The data are constructed from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists. The inflation data are constructed from the series "Consumer Price Index, Monthly Vintages (PCPI)". The growth data from the series "Industrial Production Index: Total (IPT)". www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/real-time-data/