## Dictionary for hf_final_allobservations.dta and .csv, hf_final_tbonly_public.dta and .csv

hf_final_allobservations_public.dta and .csv - complete high-frequency dataset

hf_final_tbonly_public.dta and .csv - Greenbook/Tealbook dataset, used for Mincer & Zarnowitz regressions that only use Greenbooks in section 3.1 (section 2, equation 1 of preanalysis plan)

## columns

year: year (yyyy) forecast was made.

date: date (ddmmmyyyy) forecast was made.

dateqtr: quarter of date (yyyyq#).

obsdate: quarter that is being forecasted, string type.

projqtr: quarter that is being forecasted, float type.

fore_dist: the number of calendar days between the current forecast, for a particular macroeconomic variable-horizon, and the previous such forecast for a given FOMC cycle.  This variable equals zero when, for a given macroeconomic variable-horizon, there was no other such forecast for a given FOMC cycle (this situation implies we only had the Greenbook for that variable-horizon for that FOMC cycle).  Used in weighting regressions that used high-frequency data.

fomc: the date of the first day of the next regularly scheduled FOMC meeting (ddmmmyyyy).

varible: the macroeconomic variable being forecasted. 

source: the document type we used to record the forecast. we also record briefing tables and texts as pre-FOMC (the in-person forecast update just prior to a FOMC meeting) or bi-weekly (all other non-pre-FOMC briefings).

horizon: forecast horizon in quarters, -1 = 1 quarter backcast, 0 = current quarter, etc..  Forecasts are indexed by horizon based on the next regularly scheduled FOMC date, not based on calendar quarters.

rgdp_fore: real GDP growth forecasts, p.p., a.r.

pcepilfe_fore: core PCE inflation forecasts, p.p., a.r.

rgdp_3rd: BEA 3rd release of real GDP growth for the quarter being forecasted, p.p., a.r.

pcepilfe_3rd: BEA 3rd release of core PCE inflation for the quarter being forecasted, p.p., a.r.

fomcqtr: the quarter of the upcoming regularly scheduled FOMC meeting (yyyyq#).

prevfomc: date of previous regularly scheduled FOMC (ddmmmyyyy).

from_end: the number of forecasts for a particular variable-horizon-FOMC until the last forecast for that variable-horizon-FOMC, (i.e., =0 for the last forecast available before a FOMC).

weeks: number of weeks until the first day of the next regularly scheduled FOMC meeting, rounded down.

weeks01: indicator for whether it is less than 14 days until the first day of the next regularly scheduled FOMC meeting (i.e., I{weeks == 0 | weeks == 1}).

rgdp_rev: revision (first difference) to real GDP growth forecast based on previous forecast for real GDP growth at the indicated horizon within a FOMC cycle.  rgdp_rev == missing for the first forecast of real GDP growth for the indicated horizon for that FOMC cycle.  rgdp_rev includes consecutive observations where the forecast does not revise.  regression file (regs_final_public.do) excludes consecutive observations where the revision is less than one basis point to weed out thin trading issues.

pcepilfe_rev: same as rgdp_rev for core PCE inflation.

rgdp_err: real GDP growth forecast errors, 3rd release - forecast.

pcepilfe_err: core PCE inflation forecast errors, 3rd release - forecast.

zscore: rolling 71 day average of Bloomberg forecast errors, standardized by rolling 2 year standard deviation of Bloomberg forecast errors, NOT weighted by S&P 500 futures returns (news(tau) without r_i_tau in the summation formula).

zscorexreturn: news(tau), S&P 500 return weighted rolling standardized sum of Bloomberg forecast errors.

