Dimitris Korobilis, "VAR forecasting using Bayesian variable selection", Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 28. No. 2, 2013, pp. 204-230. There are two data files, one in .txt and one in .xls format. The .txt file, Korobilis-data.txt, is zipped in dk-data-txt.zip. The .xls file, Korobilis-data.xls, is zipped in dk-data-xls.zip. Unix/Linux users should use "unzip -a" on dk-data-txt.zip, but "unzip" (without the -a option) on dk-data-xls.zip. The two data files contain exactly the same 14 data series, with their mnemonics and description: MGSX LFS: Unemployment rate: UK: All: Aged 16 and over: %: SA U_GAP Unemployment gap RPIX CZBH - RPI:Percentage change over 12 months - all items AJNB Treasury bills: average discount rate MGSU LFS: Employment rate: UK: All: Aged 16-59/64: %: SA GDP IHYR - Gross Domestic Product: Quarter on quarter previous year: CVM SA AUSS AUSS - Sterling exchange rate : #1 = US dollar ETBV CBI INDUSTRIAL TRENDS SURVEY: Business Optimism: Balance: NEXT 4 MONTHS YBGB Gross Domestic Product (Expenditure) at market prices deflator: SA NRJS HN:Households saving ratio: CP SA ATTD Money stock M4 end period - # billions SA BCJE Claimant count rate - all - SA (UK) % CKYW IOP: C,D,E: All production industries: CVMSA BCGT New registrations of cars (GB), thousands These are UK quarterly macroeconomic series covering the period 1971:Q1 -- 2008:Q4. All series where downloaded from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) website in June 2009. The variable MGSX (Unemployment rate, All aged 16+, Seasonally Adjusted) is NOT used anywhere as is (in levels). Instead, as I explain in the beginning of Section 4 in the paper, an unemployment GAP variable is calculated (which is respectively the second variable in the list above). All (linear and nonlinear) three-variable "small" VARs include the Unemployment GAP, the RPIX, and the short-term interest rate. These three variables plus the remaining 10 are used alltogether only in the (linear) thirteen-variable "large" VAR. MATLAB code which estimates the linear VAR and the time-varying parameters VAR with variable selection, is available since September 2009 in the MATLAB suite of Gary Koop and Dimitris Korobilis: http://personal.strath.ac.uk/gary.koop/bayes_matlab_code_by_koop_and_korobilis.html or http://perso.uclouvain.be/dimitrios.korompilis/code.html (click on: "Code for BVAR with variable selection as in Korobilis (2009b) is available here") Dimitris Korobilis dikorobilis [AT] googlemail.com