Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Charles F. Manski, Giorgio Topa, and Wilbert van der Klaauw, "Measuring Consumer Uncertainty about Future Inflation", Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 26, No. 3, 2011, pp. 454-478. The data used in the paper were collected as part of RAND's American Life Panel (ALP). For more information about the ALP, see https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php/Main_Page The data were collected through a number of separate survey modules fielded during the October 2007--October 2009 period. The data we used in our analysis are organized into two different files, one corresponding to the "special survey" and one corresponding to the "panel survey", and are included in both Stata and ASCI format. These datasets only contain the variables and observations that we actually used in our analyses. Full descriptions of the questionnaires describing the raw data variables are provided in PDF format, one for the special survey and one for the final wave of our panel survey. The raw data files can be downloaded at no cost (after a simple registration) from RAND's data archive: https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php/Data Also downloadable from this site are the questionnaires and variables definitions for each survey module. The raw data for the special survey can be found in the data file corresponding to module 16. The corresponding raw data files for the panel survey can be found in the data files corresponding to modules 14, 17, 19, 25, 31, 37, 45, 56, 55, 61, 69, 75, 84 and 89. As discusses in the paper, ALP participants were divided into (1) an 'old sample' of individuals aged 40 and older who participated in the Michigan Survey prior to December 2006, and (2) a 'new sample' of individuals aged 18 and older who participated in the Michigan Survey after December 2006. Those in the 'old' sample were invited to participate in the panel surveys, and those in the 'new' sample were invited to participate in the special survey. A total of 589 participants from the 'new' ALP sample completed our special survey between December 22, 2007 and May 22, 2008, with 47.9% filling it out by December 31, 2007, and 86.0% by January 31, 2008. The first panel survey was fielded on November 7, 2007 and has been repeated since then every six weeks or so. Here, we report on the first 14 waves with the most recent one entering the field on July 31, 2009. In our analysis of each panel survey, we only consider responses for those participants who fill it out within 30 days after the field date, in order to avoid spurious heterogeneity in responses due to changing economic conditions over time. In addition, our analyses include only those respondents who participated in at least five of the first nine waves. These criteria yield a panel with fairly stable composition and number of responses over time, with on average about 400 responses per survey. In some of the modules that are part of the panel survey, we randomized between respondents, where one group (group A) would receive questions Q20 and QExtra, while a second group (group B) was asked questions Q20B and QExtraB. The difference between the questions was that group A was only shown 8 bins to allocate probabilities over, while group B was shown 10 bins instead. In our analysis, we only used answers provided to questions Q20 and QExtra, as we have a longer time series for these questions. Accompanying files Msall-JAE.dta Stata datafile containing panelsurvey data Msall-JAE.txt ASCI datafile containing panelsurvey data Specialsurvey-JAE.dta Stata datafile containing specialsurvey data Specialsurvey-JAE.txt ASCI datafile containing specialsurvey data Panelsurvey-codebook codebook for last module of panel survey (ms89) Specialsurvey-codebook codebook of special survey (ms16) Panelsurvey-quest questionnaire of last module of panel survey (ms89) Specialsurvey-quest questionnaire of special survey (ms16) The descriptions below list the variables in the order in which they appear in the datasets. Description of Variables in Panel Survey (msall-JAE) Prim_key: Individual identifier to link records belonging to the same individual over time Tsstart: Time and date when started survey Tsend: Time and date completed survey Tsend_formatted, Tsend_formatted_td: formatted versions of Tsend Procrastinate: Number of days since module was fielded (in our analysis, we excluded responses more than one month after the date the survey was fielded). Module_id: Survey module number (wave of panel) randomVersion: flag variable for whether individuals were given 8-bin or 10-bin density questions. randomVersion==1 means 8-bin version, randomVersion==2 means 10-bin version. Q8, Q9, Q10, Q10_rg1, Q10_rg2, Q11_1, Q11_2, Q11_r, Q11_f, Q12, Q12_f, FLQ12, Q13, Q14, Q14_f, Q15, Q15_rg1, Q15_rg2, Q16_1, Q16_2, Q16_r, Q16_f, Q17, Q17_f, FLQ17, Q18, Q19, Q19_f: See enclosed codebook for panel survey and questionnaire for MS89 (latest module included in panel) for descriptions of these variables measuring respondents' point forecast of year-ahead changes in prices in general. Infl_mi Respondent's point forecast of year-ahead changes in prices in general (computed using the variables Q8 to Q19_f listed above) Q20Intro, Q20_a, Q20_b, Q20_c, Q20_d, Q20_e, Q20_f, Q20_g, Q20_h, Q20Total: See enclosed codebook for panel survey and questionnaire for MS89 (latest module included in panel) for descriptions of these variables measuring respondents' percent chance associated with different intervals of year-ahead changes in prices in general 8-bin version. Q20BIntro, Q20B_a, Q20B_b, Q20B_c, Q20B_d, Q20B_e, Q20B_f, Q20B_g, Q20B_h, Q20B_i, Q20B_j, Q20BTotal: same as above but now 10-bin version. Mean_mi: Estimated mean of generalized Beta distribution for changes in prices in general Median_mi: Estimated median of generalized Beta distribution for changes in prices in general Var_mi: Estimated variance of generalized Beta distribution changes for in prices in general Quant1_mi: Estimated 25th percentile of generalized Beta distribution for prices in general Quant3_mi: Estimated 75th percentile of generalized Beta distribution for prices in general Q37, Q38, Q38_rg1, Q38_rg2, Q38_r, Q39, Q39_rg1, Q39_rg2, Q39_r: See enclosed codebook for panel survey and questionnaire for MS89 (latest module included in panel) for descriptions of these variables measuring respondents' point forecast of year-ahead changes in earnings. Wage Respondent's point forecast of year-ahead changes in earnings (computed using the variables Q37 to Q39_r listed above) QExtra_a, QExtra_b, QExtra_c, QExtra_d, QExtra_e, QExtra_f, QExtra_g, QExtra_h, QExtraTotal: See enclosed codebook for panel survey and questionnaire for MS89 (latest module included in panel) for descriptions of these variables measuring respondents' percent chance associated with different intervals of year-ahead growth in earnings 8-bin version (only asked to those working). QExtraB_a, QExtraB_b, QExtraB_c, QExtraB_d, QExtraB_e, QExtraB_f, QExtraB_g, QExtraB_h, QExtraB_i, QExtraB_j, QExtraBTotal: same as above but now 10-bin version. Mean_wg: Estimated mean of generalized Beta distribution for changes in wage earnings Median_wg: Estimated median of generalized Beta distribution for changes in wage earnings Var_wg: Estimated variance of generalized Beta distribution for wage earnings Quant1_wg: Estimated 25th percentile of generalized Beta distribution for wage earnings Quant3_wg: Estimated 75th percentile of generalized Beta distribution for wage earnings Birthday: day of birth Birthmonth: month of birth Birthyear: year of birth Calcage: computed age (in years) of respondent at time of survey Ageover59: Indicator for whether 60 or older at time of survey Highesteducation: highest degree attained College: Indicator for whether respondent has BA or higher degree Currentlivingsituation: (1) Married or living with a partner, (2) Separated, (3) Divorced, (4) Widowed, (5) Never Married Married: Indicator for whether married/living together or not Gender: (1) Male, (2) Female Male: Indicator for whether respondent is male Race: (1) white/Caucasian, (2) black/African American, (3) American Indian/Alaskan, (4) Asian/Pacific Islander, (5) other Familyincome: (1) Less than 5K, (2) 5K to 7.5K, (3) 7.5K to 10K, (4)10K to 12.5K, (5) 12.5K to 15K, (6) 15K to 20K, (7) 20K to 25K, (8) 25K to 30K, (9) 30K to 35K, (10) 35K to 40K, (11) 40K to 50K, (12) 50K to 60K, (13) 60K to 75K, (14) 75K or more. Familyincome_part2: (1) 75K to 100K, (2) 100K to 125K, (3) 125K to 200K, (4) 200K or more Incover40: Indicator for whether family income is at least 40K Incover75: Indicator for whether family income is at least 75K Q31s1: indicator for whether currently working Numeracy: Total number of correct answers on numeracy questions Finlit: Indicator for correct answer to single financial literacy question Highfinlit: Indicator for high numeracy&financial literacy (combined) score Description of Variables in Special Survey (specialsurvey-JAE) Prim_key: Individual identifier to link records belonging to the same individual over time Tsstart: Time and date when started survey Tsend: Time and date completed survey Q8, Q9, QA9, Q10, Q11_1, Q11_2, Q11_r, Q11_f, Q12, FLQ12, Q13, Q14, Q15, Q16_1, Q16_2, Q16_r, Q16_f, Q17, FLQ17, Q18, Q19: See enclosed codebook and questionnaire of special survey for descriptions of these variables measuring respondents' point forecast of year-ahead changes in prices in general. Infl_mi: Respondent's point forecast of year-ahead changes in prices in general (computed using the variables Q8 to Q19 listed above) P012: How hard to answer question about prices in general -- scale 1 (very easy) to 7 (very hard) P013: How clear was question about prices in general -- scale 1 (very unclear) to 7 (very clear) P022a, P022b, P022c, P022d, P022e, P022f, P022g, P022h, P022Total: See enclosed codebook and questionnaire of special survey for descriptions of these variables measuring respondents' percent chance associated with different intervals of year-ahead changes in prices in general with 8 bins. P023: How hard was it to answer probabilistic question about prices in general -- scale 1 (very easy) to 7 (very hard) P024: How hard was it to give answers that added to 100 -- scale 1 (very easy) to 7 (very hard) P025: How clear was probabilistic question about prices in general -- scale 1 (very unclear) to 7 (very clear) Mean_mi: Estimated mean of generalized Beta distribution for changes in prices in general Median_mi: Estimated median of generalized Beta distribution for changes in prices in general Var_mi: Estimated variance of generalized Beta distribution for changes in prices in general Quant1_mi: Estimated 25th percentile of generalized Beta distribution for prices in general Quant3_mi: Estimated 75th percentile of generalized Beta distribution for prices in general WR008,WR009, WR010_1, WR010_2, WR010_r: See enclosed codebook and questionnaire of special survey for descriptions of these variables measuring respondents' point forecast of year-ahead changes in earnings. Wage Respondent's point forecast of year-ahead changes in earnings (computed using the variables WR008 to WR010_r listed above) WR013: How hard to answer question about earnings -- scale 1 (very easy) to 7 (very hard) WR014: How clear was question about earnings -- scale 1 (very unclear) to 7 (very clear) WR015_a, WR015_b, WR015_c, WR015_d, WR015_e, WR015_f, WR015_g, WR015_h, WR015Total: See enclosed codebook and questionnaire of special survey for descriptions of these variables measuring respondents' percent chance associated with different intervals of year-ahead growth in earnings (only asked to those working). Mean_ny: Estimated mean of generalized Beta distribution for changes in wage earnings Median_ny: Estimated median of generalized Beta distribution for changes in wage earnings Var_ny: Estimated variance of generalized Beta distribution for wage earnings Quant1_ny: Estimated 25th percentile of generalized Beta distribution for wage earnings Quant3_ny: Estimated 75th percentile of generalized Beta distribution for wage earnings FD002d: Indicator for respondent taking main responsibility for investing in household FD003: Planning Horizon Spending from (1) next day, to (9) longer than 10 years FD004: Planning Horizon Saving from (1) next day, to (9) longer than 10 years Birthday: day of birth Birthmonth: month of birth Birthyear: year of birth Calcage: computed age (in years) of respondent at time of survey Highesteducation: highest degree attained (see codebook) Currentlivingsituation: (1) Married or living with a partner, (2) Separated, (3) Divorced, (4) Widowed, (5) Never Married Gender: (1) Male, (2) Female White: (1) white, (2) black, (3) native American, (4) Asian, (5) other Familyincome: (1) Less than 5K, (2) 5K to 7.5K, (3) 7.5K to 10K, (4) 10K to 12.5K, (5) 12.5K to 15K, (6) 15K to 20K, (7) 20K to 25K, (8) 25K to 30K, (9) 30K to 35K, (10) 35K to 40K, (11) 40K to 50K, (12) 50K to 60K, (13) 60K to 75K, (14) 75K or more. WR001s1: current employment status = working now Numeracy: Total number of correct answers on numeracy questions Finlit: Indicator for correct answer to single financial literacy question Finlit_total: Total financial literacy score (Finlit and numeracy combined)) There are four files, two of which are zip files that contain six other files in total. bmtk-data-txt.zip contains: specialsurvey-JAE.txt specialsurvey-codebook.txt panelsurvey-codebook.txt msall-JAE.txt bmtk-data-dta.zip contains: specialsurvey-JAE.dta msall-JAE.dta specialsurvey-quest.pdf panelsurvey-quest.pdf Unix/Linux users should use "unzip -a" when unzipping bmtk-data-txt.zip but *not* when unzipping bmtk-data-dta.zip.